It’s fair to say that as 2022 came to a close, the Telluride Real Estate Market was grappling to re- establish its position of value in the post-covid-boom world. Interest rates, inflation, and political unrest had everyone on edge as to what was in store for 2023. Well, here we are, already through the first quarter of 2023. At first glance, the percentage decrease in number of transactions and dollar volume YTD may seem significant. Yet, as the market normalizes, comparing it to the highs of the boom is an unfair assessment. To put things into perspective, San Miguel County’s dollar volume for the first quarter of 2023 was the third highest on record.
The year 2022 has retreated into our rear-view mirror and the short-term message relative to the Telluride Real Estate Market in early 2023 indicates that mortgage rates may have eased off from their meteoric rise and the buying frenzy of the past two years has subsided.
A snapshot of year-end market data indicates a slowdown in the market evidenced by a retreat in dollar sales volume down 22% (2022 vs 2021) and number of transactions down 38%. Segregating the year-to-date (December) data from 2021 to 2022 within our larger regional markets (Telluride, Mountain Village and the remainder of San Miguel County) reveals declines of 29%, 15% and 25% respectively. An optimistic data point reveals that total property sales of $5mm and above declined a modest 9% from 2021 based on transaction volume. Another bright point shows that although dollar volume and number of sales have pulled back in 2022, the overall price per square foot averages, across most property types, have risen or held firm due to very limited inventory.
As the summer selling season comes to a close, we are seeing the dollar volume of sales down only 9% from last year, however the number of transactions are down 31% in San Miguel County. Not to much surprise, average sales prices in the county have increased 31% YTD over the record setting 2021. Overall, the dollar volume for the Telluride and Mountain Village markets are down YTD 11% and 7% respectively, yet average sales prices are up 12% and 38%. In general, the Telluride area market now seems to have reached a plateau.
Even as buyer demand has moderated, inventories still have not increased much as most people are very happy with their ownership and are not looking to sell. Limited affordability (exclusivity), low inventory and moderate demand are not putting enough downward pressure on pricing at this time to drive prices down from a balanced market.
Summer is underway in Telluride, as the 4th of July marks the unofficial leap into the season. We’ve seen a lot of early monsoon rains this year, which is a great sign after a dry and windy spring. The San Juan high country is green and popping with wildflowers, creating the perfect backdrop for hiking and biking adventures. In the real estate world, despite the first decrease of overall dollar volume in recent history, average sales prices are still up 31% in San Miguel County (SMC). Still, it feels like we are on the cusp of a shift in the local market. Obviously, it’s hard to know exactly what that means, but here are the tea leaves we’re reading:
Inventory Continues To Be Low: Down 50% in Telluride and 20%+ in SMC compared to last year, but this trend seems to be turning toward a slow increase in inventory levels.
List-To-Sold Price Ratio Is Historically High: 98% in SMC and over 97% in Telluride – these numbers really can’t go much higher, so it’s now a question of how long sellers will retain this negotiating “power”.
As we parse through 2022’s first quarter data here at Telluride Properties, we find that most resort markets have seen a decline in the number of sales year-over-year due to a lack of inventory but mixed results for dollar volume of sales. While a few markets such as Jackson Hole may be experiencing dollar volume declines, significant dollar volume increases are still happening in Telluride, Big Sky and Aspen (while the Hamptons remain steady). This may indicate a change as we emerge from the pandemic, where radically low inventories are our own “new normal” (only 5 homes currently available in Telluride and 9 in Mountain Village), causing an overall decline in sales volume while values in these areas continue to rise significantly; median prices in these markets have sailed 13-51% over the past year.
The dust has settled on 2021 and it’s another one for the history books! San Miguel County’s real estate sales exceeded 2020’s dollar volume of $1.1b with a new record of $1.4b. That’s exciting news, yet most likely a peak for now. Buyer demand is still very strong; however, current owners aren’t anxious to give up their Telluride retreats without good reason.
Mountain Village continued to lead the market as the number of sales in Town decreased by 25% due to limited offerings. Vacant land sales were bolstered greatly by the lack of inventory in home and condo segments, with sales volume increasing by as much as 99% in certain areas of the county. The upper-end of the market also saw more action in 2021, with 65 sales over $5m versus 48 in 2020. Of those 65 sales, 11 were over $10m, including 115 Francisco Way in Aldasoro Ranch (Tom Cruise) at $39.5m, 398 W. Colorado Ave. in Town (Main St Penthouse w/ Commercial) at $28m and 184 Butch Cassidy Drive in Mountain Village (Oprah) at $17m.
Nothing like a pandemic to lift a market! San Miquel County real estate sales have surpassed $16 through the end of September and are on track to eclipse last year’s $1.16b record. Mountain Village and surrounding areas have carried the market, as buyers have come to recognize the attractiveness of values and lifestyle opportunities there. Downtown Telluride sales have slowed, simply because there has been very little inventory. Of recent importance, is the advent of properties contracting over $10m and $20m. No longer are sales over these thresholds considered an anomaly. Telluride is clearly maturing quickly and with its limited supply, suggests continued appreciation.
Telluride Real Estate Market Update – July 2021 Click on the above report for a comprehensive Market Update, summarizing the current state of affairs in the Telluride Area Real Estate Market. As we cross the halfway mark of 2021, the Telluride Region’s real estate market continues charging full speed ahead. As inventories have dwindled over the past year-and-a-half, San Miguel County’s dollar volume of sales has continued to rise, increasing 207% year-to-date over the prior 5 year-to-date average. Amazingly, at $684M, the year-to-date dollar volume of sales has surpassed the yearly totals for the last 10+ years (with the exception of 2020). Due to very limited inventory in Town, we have seen Mountain Village and outlying areas surge, carrying the market.
Telluride has clearly felt the real estate frenzy ignited by the pandemic. Inventory has hit 30 year lows as evidence by only 16 homes and condos available for purchase in Downtown Telluride. This does not mean that Town is dramatically changing or that the market does not still have opportunity. Like-minded people still choose Telluride for its sense of community and small town living. An interesting spin-off from this influx of new people is an increase in intellectual diversity that has led to more collaboration on many fronts including arts, science, economics and more. This next era may lead to a more diversified regional economy, sophistication and global idea exchange.
Telluride Real Estate Market Update – January 2021 Click on the above report for a comprehensive Market Update, summarizing the current state of affairs in the Telluride Area Real Estate Market.
Wow, what an unprecedented and unpredictable year 2020 was. Full of heartbreak and turmoil for so many, we in Telluride were reminded time and time again how lucky we are to enjoy the lifestyle provided by our quaint town in the San Juan Mountains. As we reflect on the trajectory of the Telluride real estate market over the past 12 months, it seems that very lifestyle sentiment was the prevailing force in driving an extraordinary influx of demand, as the dollar volume of sales reached all-time highs. In fact, the previous high dollar volume mark set in 2007 at $756.6m was blown out of the water in 2020, increasing more than 50% for a total dollar volume of $1.16b. Incredibly, every month of the year exceeded $125m in dollar volume for San Miguel County.
Telluride Real Estate Market Update – October 2020 Click on the above report for a comprehensive Market Update, summarizing the current state of affairs in the Telluride Area Real Estate Market.
If ever there were a year that we wished we had a crystal ball it would be 2020. As the Telluride real estate market flourished from outstanding new-construction inventory in 2019, the first quarter of 2020 brought us the pandemic, cancellation of our beloved summer festivals and a general and universal air of uncertainty. However, in spite of these unprecedented circumstances, the indubitable qualities of this remote San Juan Mountain refuge have proven to outweigh the uncertainty.
Like many of Telluride’s competitor’s and proverbial peers (Vail, Aspen, Jackson Hole, etc.) the summer of 2020 has taken the real estate market to new highs, particularly on the high-end. The paradigm has shifted and Buyers are reexamining the meaning of home, particularly in a place like Telluride, which was named one of the healthiest and most active counties in the entire country. The results are undeniable: Since June 2020, nearly 500 properties have contracted or sold totaling over $500 million. The third quarter of 2020 produced a dollar volume of more than $373 million, which is an all-time dollar volume high for any one quarter and surpasses the total dollar volume for some full calendar years, including the annual totals for 2010 through 2013.
Real estate stays hot as the weather starts to cool
Telluride September Update
As Telluride sees our first snowfall of the coming Autumn, the real estate market has remained piping hot. The month of August shattered the previous single month Sales Volume record with $125m closed. This annihilates the previous record of $96.9m set in December of 2019! Given the current pandemic, low interest rates and an undeniable surge of buyers leaving urban areas in search of the mountain lifestyle, demand for Telluride is at an all-time high. This high demand has resulted in a 54% increase in dollar volume in 2020 year-to-date ($455.92m) compared to the prior 5-year average of $296m year-to-date.
Ski Season is Coming!
Season passes to Telluride Ski Resort just went on sale today. Passes are available for renewal for previous year pass holders. Simply login here if you’ve bought a pass online before:Telluride Ski Pass 2020-2021
As always, thank you for reading and we would love to hear from you. Send us an email or give us a call!